← 2. Bundesliga 2013-14 · Sun, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ingolstadt win | 59% | 43% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 31% | 4.24 | value: +33% |
| Cottbus win | 18% | 26% | 5.49 | value: +43% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ingolstadt | Cottbus |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 222.00 | 892.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1471.14 | 1351.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.44 | -30.34 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| league points | 41.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 0.76 |
| state index | -0.06 | -1.48 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |