← 2. Bundesliga 2013-14 · Sun, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln win | 45% | 49% | 2.19 | value: +8% |
| Frankfurt FSV win | 30% | 21% | 3.29 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 29% | 3.81 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Frankfurt FSV | 1. FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 344.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1433.12 | 1644.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.98 | 21.64 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| league points | 38.00 | 68.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 2.06 |
| state index | -0.60 | 0.98 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |