← 2. Bundesliga 2013-14 · Sun, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dresden win | 45% | 52% | 2.15 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.34 | fair |
| Bielefeld win | 25% | 22% | 3.85 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dresden | Bielefeld |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1287.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1409.89 | 1351.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.97 | 19.85 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| league points | 32.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 0.97 |
| state index | -0.61 | -0.46 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |