← 2. Bundesliga 2013-14 · Sun, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Munich 1860 win | 41% | 48% | 2.40 | value: +16% |
| Bochum win | 32% | 21% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.62 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Munich 1860 | Bochum |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1403.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1466.65 | 1400.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.36 | -9.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| league points | 44.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.16 |
| state index | -0.51 | -0.73 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |