← 2. Bundesliga 2013-14 · Sun, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaiserslautern win | 65% | 61% | 1.49 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 25% | 4.90 | value: +21% |
| Dresden win | 15% | 14% | 6.63 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kaiserslautern | Dresden |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 245.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1553.90 | 1419.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.72 | 2.54 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| league points | 51.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.59 | 1.00 |
| state index | 0.35 | -0.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |