← 2. Bundesliga 2013-14 · Sun, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greuther Furth win | 61% | 50% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 27% | 4.76 | value: +28% |
| Cottbus win | 19% | 24% | 5.23 | value: +24% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cottbus | Greuther Furth |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 885.00 | 429.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1365.68 | 1549.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.78 | -9.15 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| league points | 25.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 0.78 | 1.69 |
| state index | -1.08 | -0.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |