← 2. Bundesliga 2013-14 · Sun, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 39% | 32% | 2.52 | fair |
| Aalen win | 34% | 38% | 2.86 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.58 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aalen | 1. FC Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 2529.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1460.03 | 1476.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.28 | -17.57 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| league points | 41.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.28 | 1.34 |
| state index | 0.08 | -0.62 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |