← 2. Bundesliga 2013-14 · Sun, Apr 27, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 53% | 50% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 29% | 3.91 | value: +12% |
| Aalen win | 22% | 22% | 4.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC St. Pauli 1910 | Aalen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 177.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1503.30 | 1436.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.56 | -7.89 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| league points | 47.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 1.23 |
| state index | -0.39 | -0.45 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |