← 2. Bundesliga 2013-14 · Sun, Apr 27, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dresden win | 43% | 33% | 2.29 | fair |
| Karlsruhe win | 30% | 37% | 3.28 | value: +20% |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.54 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dresden | Karlsruhe |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 787.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1418.45 | 1501.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.43 | 18.35 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| league points | 31.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.55 |
| state index | -0.30 | 0.07 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |