← 2. Bundesliga 2013-14 · Sat, Apr 26, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frankfurt FSV win | 52% | 47% | 1.87 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.78 | fair |
| Cottbus win | 22% | 26% | 4.39 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Frankfurt FSV | Cottbus |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 877.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1423.26 | 1376.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -59.64 | -23.67 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 34.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 0.81 |
| state index | -1.26 | -1.04 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |