← 2. Bundesliga 2013-14 · Mon, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln win | 71% | 62% | 1.38 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 27% | 5.04 | value: +37% |
| Bochum win | 9% | 11% | 10.69 | value: +17% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Köln | Bochum |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 324.00 | 1390.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1634.29 | 1431.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.41 | -4.56 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| league points | 61.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 2.03 | 1.23 |
| state index | 0.95 | -0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |