← 2. Bundesliga 2013-14 · Sat, Apr 19, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Munich 1860 win | 45% | 61% | 2.17 | value: +33% ⚠ |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.52 | fair |
| Bielefeld win | 27% | 15% | 3.56 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Munich 1860 | Bielefeld |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1265.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1446.71 | 1331.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -44.21 | -7.89 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| league points | 38.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 0.93 |
| state index | -1.01 | -1.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |