← 2. Bundesliga 2013-14 · Thu, Apr 17, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cottbus win | 43% | 33% | 2.24 | fair |
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 31% | 38% | 3.09 | value: +17% |
| Draw | 25% | 29% | 3.85 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cottbus | FC St. Pauli 1910 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 868.00 | 167.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1374.18 | 1505.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.05 | -19.53 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| league points | 24.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 1.53 |
| state index | -0.77 | -0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |