← 2. Bundesliga 2013-14 · Mon, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dresden win | 50% | 32% | 1.95 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 32% | 3.79 | value: +20% |
| Munich 1860 win | 24% | 36% | 4.00 | value: +45% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dresden | Munich 1860 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1416.61 | 1461.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.93 | -30.23 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| league points | 28.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 1.31 |
| state index | -1.04 | -0.67 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |