← 2. Bundesliga 2013-14 · Sat, Apr 12, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greuther Furth win | 65% | 67% | 1.51 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 21% | 4.55 | fair |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 14% | 13% | 7.12 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Greuther Furth | Erzgebirge AUE |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 407.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1558.15 | 1434.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.88 | 15.41 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| league points | 50.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.72 | 1.28 |
| state index | 0.33 | -0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |