← 2. Bundesliga 2013-14 · Sat, Apr 12, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karlsruhe win | 38% | 47% | 2.59 | value: +21% |
| Bielefeld win | 34% | 26% | 2.88 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.43 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bielefeld | Karlsruhe |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1258.00 | 772.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1328.20 | 1496.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.12 | -2.05 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.45 |
| league points | 27.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 1.52 |
| state index | -1.24 | -0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |