← 2. Bundesliga 2013-14 · Fri, Apr 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln win | 41% | 46% | 2.39 | value: +10% |
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 31% | 23% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 31% | 3.51 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Union Berlin | 1. FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2506.00 | 314.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1492.40 | 1626.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.41 | 13.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| league points | 42.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 2.00 |
| state index | -0.17 | 0.72 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |