← 2. Bundesliga 2013-14 · Fri, Apr 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaiserslautern win | 44% | 36% | 2.23 | fair |
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 29% | 35% | 3.40 | value: +20% |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.55 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC St. Pauli 1910 | Kaiserslautern |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 161.00 | 222.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1516.42 | 1538.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.42 | -1.13 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| league points | 46.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.59 | 1.52 |
| state index | -0.04 | -0.08 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |