← 2. Bundesliga 2013-14 · Fri, Apr 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ingolstadt win | 43% | 36% | 2.28 | fair |
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 30% | 35% | 3.28 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.56 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ingolstadt | SC Paderborn 07 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 192.00 | 284.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1458.89 | 1537.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.75 | 22.19 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| league points | 36.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.69 |
| state index | -0.13 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |