← 2. Bundesliga 2013-14 · Mon, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greuther Furth win | 40% | 46% | 2.43 | value: +13% |
| Ingolstadt win | 30% | 26% | 3.23 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.34 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ingolstadt | Greuther Furth |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 188.00 | 402.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1457.70 | 1559.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.89 | 18.88 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| league points | 35.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 9.96 | 9.96 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.75 |
| state index | -0.06 | 0.39 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |