← 2. Bundesliga 2013-14 · Sat, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln win | 69% | 74% | 1.41 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 20% | 18% | 4.81 | fair |
| Bielefeld win | 11% | 8% | 9.06 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Köln | Bielefeld |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 308.00 | 1251.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1622.88 | 1331.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.69 | -2.57 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| league points | 55.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.96 | 0.96 |
| state index | 0.57 | -1.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |