← 2. Bundesliga 2013-14 · Mon, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 44% | 51% | 2.24 | value: +15% |
| Cottbus win | 28% | 24% | 3.44 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.47 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Union Berlin | Cottbus |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2495.00 | 851.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1494.54 | 1390.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.04 | 28.47 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| league points | 39.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 5.96 | 4.96 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 0.85 |
| state index | -0.45 | -0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |