← 2. Bundesliga 2013-14 · Sun, Mar 30, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln win | 45% | 38% | 2.17 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 34% | 3.46 | value: +16% |
| Munich 1860 win | 27% | 28% | 3.66 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Munich 1860 | 1. FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 302.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1490.01 | 1614.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.55 | 1.04 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| league points | 38.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 3.96 | 3.96 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 1.93 |
| state index | 0.12 | 0.57 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |