← 2. Bundesliga 2013-14 · Sun, Mar 30, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bielefeld win | 44% | 32% | 2.24 | fair |
| Aalen win | 28% | 40% | 3.45 | value: +37% |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.45 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bielefeld | Aalen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1245.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1330.23 | 1441.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.16 | -22.32 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| league points | 26.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 3.96 | 4.96 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.22 |
| state index | -0.95 | -0.76 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |