← 2. Bundesliga 2013-14 · Fri, Mar 28, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dresden win | 55% | 44% | 1.76 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 30% | 3.88 | value: +15% |
| SV Sandhausen win | 19% | 26% | 5.02 | value: +31% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dresden | SV Sandhausen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 270.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1416.56 | 1451.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.07 | 22.15 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| league points | 26.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.48 |
| state index | -0.91 | -0.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |