← 2. Bundesliga 2013-14 · Wed, Mar 26, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cottbus win | 45% | 33% | 2.19 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.41 | value: +4% |
| Munich 1860 win | 27% | 36% | 3.64 | value: +32% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cottbus | Munich 1860 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 846.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1399.87 | 1480.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.41 | 4.78 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| league points | 23.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 1.35 |
| state index | -0.11 | -0.08 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |