← 2. Bundesliga 2013-14 · Tue, Mar 25, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 45% | 43% | 2.16 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 25% | 3.33 | fair |
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 26% | 32% | 3.81 | value: +22% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Paderborn 07 | FC St. Pauli 1910 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 267.00 | 144.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1522.77 | 1520.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.43 | 21.02 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| league points | 43.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.65 | 1.62 |
| state index | 0.18 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |