← 2. Bundesliga 2013-14 · Tue, Mar 25, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ingolstadt win | 49% | 42% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 31% | 3.44 | value: +6% |
| Bochum win | 23% | 27% | 4.27 | value: +16% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ingolstadt | Bochum |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 175.00 | 1363.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1442.12 | 1423.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.86 | -16.53 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| league points | 31.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 1.15 |
| state index | -0.41 | -0.57 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |