← 2. Bundesliga 2013-14 · Tue, Mar 25, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aalen win | 37% | 47% | 2.64 | value: +24% |
| Dresden win | 33% | 24% | 2.93 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.29 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aalen | Dresden |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1444.30 | 1414.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.20 | -10.01 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| league points | 32.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 0.96 |
| state index | -0.58 | -1.09 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |