← 2. Bundesliga 2013-14 · Sun, Mar 23, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bielefeld win | 38% | 35% | 2.54 | fair |
| Cottbus win | 33% | 38% | 2.91 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.43 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bielefeld | Cottbus |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1238.00 | 843.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1339.10 | 1384.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.09 | 15.72 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| league points | 25.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| state index | -1.00 | -0.44 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |