← 2. Bundesliga 2013-14 · Sat, Mar 22, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 45% | 52% | 2.18 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.42 | fair |
| Ingolstadt win | 27% | 21% | 3.63 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC St. Pauli 1910 | Ingolstadt |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 141.00 | 172.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1524.85 | 1438.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.99 | 19.42 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| league points | 41.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 1.20 |
| state index | 0.16 | -0.05 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |