← 2. Bundesliga 2013-14 · Sat, Mar 22, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln win | 71% | 59% | 1.38 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 27% | 5.11 | value: +39% |
| Aalen win | 10% | 14% | 9.70 | value: +34% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Köln | Aalen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 294.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1612.88 | 1438.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.20 | -15.02 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| league points | 48.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.92 | 1.24 |
| state index | 0.46 | -0.63 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |