← 2. Bundesliga 2013-14 · Mon, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaiserslautern win | 43% | 35% | 2.24 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 32% | 3.30 | value: +6% |
| 1. FC Köln win | 27% | 33% | 3.59 | value: +17% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kaiserslautern | 1. FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 197.00 | 289.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1539.23 | 1613.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.98 | -12.28 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| league points | 37.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| season ppg | 1.54 | 1.96 |
| state index | -0.16 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |