← 2. Bundesliga 2013-14 · Sat, Mar 15, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cottbus win | 41% | 37% | 2.39 | fair |
| Karlsruhe win | 31% | 34% | 3.13 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.48 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cottbus | Karlsruhe |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 835.00 | 744.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1372.35 | 1498.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.30 | 16.21 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| league points | 17.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.71 | 1.63 |
| state index | -0.70 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |