← 2. Bundesliga 2013-14 · Fri, Mar 14, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ingolstadt win | 45% | 41% | 2.16 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.46 | fair |
| Frankfurt FSV win | 27% | 32% | 3.64 | value: +16% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ingolstadt | Frankfurt FSV |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 164.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1449.14 | 1473.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.93 | 9.69 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| league points | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| state index | 0.11 | -0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |