← 2. Bundesliga 2013-14 · Mon, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greuther Furth win | 42% | 47% | 2.30 | value: +9% |
| Bochum win | 30% | 25% | 3.25 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.54 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bochum | Greuther Furth |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1348.00 | 374.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1429.13 | 1540.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.53 | 6.27 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| league points | 27.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.74 |
| state index | -0.57 | 0.11 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |