← 2. Bundesliga 2013-14 · Sun, Mar 9, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karlsruhe win | 38% | 42% | 2.54 | value: +7% |
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 32% | 31% | 3.05 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.29 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Karlsruhe | SC Paderborn 07 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 738.00 | 251.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1479.81 | 1534.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.34 | 39.96 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| league points | 36.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 1.70 |
| state index | 0.18 | 0.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |