← 2. Bundesliga 2013-14 · Sat, Mar 8, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 48% | 52% | 2.04 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.36 | fair |
| Ingolstadt win | 23% | 22% | 4.21 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Union Berlin | Ingolstadt |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2472.00 | 158.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1506.14 | 1445.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.16 | 22.76 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| league points | 36.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 1.26 |
| state index | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |