← 2. Bundesliga 2013-14 · Fri, Mar 7, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Munich 1860 win | 44% | 44% | 2.20 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.29 | value: +6% |
| Aalen win | 26% | 23% | 3.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Munich 1860 | Aalen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1475.87 | 1473.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.56 | 10.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| league points | 31.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.35 |
| state index | -0.56 | -0.02 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |