← 2. Bundesliga 2013-14 · Sun, Mar 2, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ingolstadt win | 49% | 42% | 2.01 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.39 | fair |
| Dresden win | 23% | 28% | 4.30 | value: +20% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ingolstadt | Dresden |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 152.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1448.45 | 1414.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.76 | -20.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| league points | 28.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.00 |
| state index | 0.07 | -1.01 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |