← 2. Bundesliga 2013-14 · Sun, Mar 2, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aalen win | 35% | 41% | 2.76 | value: +13% |
| Karlsruhe win | 34% | 28% | 2.85 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.22 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aalen | Karlsruhe |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 731.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1464.08 | 1488.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.86 | 25.63 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| league points | 28.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.64 |
| state index | -0.26 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |