← 2. Bundesliga 2013-14 · Sat, Mar 1, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln win | 53% | 54% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 29% | 3.81 | value: +11% |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 21% | 17% | 4.66 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | 1. FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 273.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1426.98 | 1613.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.63 | 2.35 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| league points | 28.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.95 |
| state index | -0.06 | 0.57 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |