← 2. Bundesliga 2013-14 · Sun, Feb 23, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dresden win | 45% | 31% | 2.18 | fair |
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 28% | 41% | 3.44 | value: +42% |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.62 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dresden | FC St. Pauli 1910 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 114.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1424.03 | 1499.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.89 | -6.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| league points | 22.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 1.52 |
| state index | -0.53 | -0.04 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |