← EFL League Two 2005-06 · Sat, Mar 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: G Lewis
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Northampton win | 54% | 63% | 1.66 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 26% | 13% | 3.50 | fair |
| Notts County win | 20% | 24% | 4.50 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.