← 2. Bundesliga 2012-13 · Sun, May 19, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hertha win | 60% | 71% | 1.64 | value: +17% |
| Draw | 23% | 20% | 4.28 | fair |
| Cottbus win | 18% | 9% | 5.54 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hertha | Cottbus |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 322.00 | 535.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1683.28 | 1464.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.00 | 6.78 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| league points | 75.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.27 | 1.42 |
| state index | 1.08 | -0.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |