← 2. Bundesliga 2012-13 · Sun, May 19, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dresden win | 71% | 58% | 1.37 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 25% | 5.81 | value: +44% |
| Regensburg win | 12% | 18% | 8.10 | value: +42% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dresden | Regensburg |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1660.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1423.87 | 1319.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.01 | -20.39 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| league points | 34.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 0.58 |
| state index | -0.23 | -1.66 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |