← 2. Bundesliga 2012-13 · Sun, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 52% | 35% | 1.86 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 32% | 3.82 | value: +21% |
| Braunschweig win | 22% | 33% | 4.32 | value: +44% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC St. Pauli 1910 | Braunschweig |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 221.00 | 1837.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1473.21 | 1565.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.18 | -0.36 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| league points | 37.00 | 66.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 2.06 |
| state index | -0.37 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |