← 2. Bundesliga 2012-13 · Sun, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaiserslautern win | 69% | 60% | 1.42 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 24% | 5.01 | value: +22% |
| Regensburg win | 12% | 16% | 8.10 | value: +27% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Regensburg | Kaiserslautern |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1653.00 | 315.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1326.81 | 1574.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.19 | 17.09 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| league points | 19.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.59 | 1.72 |
| state index | -1.68 | 0.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |