← 2. Bundesliga 2012-13 · Sun, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 38% | 36% | 2.59 | fair |
| Munich 1860 win | 34% | 33% | 2.85 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 31% | 3.48 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Paderborn 07 | Munich 1860 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 681.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1465.86 | 1524.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.26 | -15.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| league points | 39.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 1.44 |
| state index | -0.78 | 0.07 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |