← 2. Bundesliga 2012-13 · Sun, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cottbus win | 65% | 58% | 1.49 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 24% | 4.82 | value: +15% |
| SV Sandhausen win | 14% | 18% | 6.81 | value: +24% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cottbus | SV Sandhausen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 528.00 | 984.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1452.85 | 1397.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.15 | -16.25 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| league points | 44.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 0.81 |
| state index | -0.25 | -0.71 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |